Why China might reassess strategic naval control of the South China Sea in 2020.
@john.grant, I am afraid I do not understand the map.
Made in China 2025 sounds like a good forward plan, but does it depend on the
New Silk Road Initiative? The
New Silk Road seems to be built rather to prevent Chinese
Belt And Road Initiative than to support it.
Sourch China Sea seems to be of critical importance to China, as it has plenty of resources and is a major crude oil import path. If the sea is so important to China, then other countries working against China have major interest in slowing/stopping China.
Elections in the US are a big opportunity for China. If US will want to change the course of the politics based on the ressentiment to the current president, China may secure the sea. However, if that does not happen, tensions will rather escalate. So, I’d see it as:
Things that I cannot represent yet are who controls which components. I still consider Chinese partnerships to be weaker than US ones (this may be my own bias), which means that China can press only as much as not to cause more retaliatory actions than it can handle. On the other hand, it has to press to cause retaliatory actions to keep US busy.
The winner gets prosperity for the next couple of decades.
Thank you for your map and comments @chris.daniel. Interesting reading.
The MIC 2025 map is based within the context of this set of assumptions that will ultimately lead to a world of multiple reserve currencies:
- In October we’ll see a tsunami of small to medium sized business insolvencies
- The outcome of the 2020 US presidential election is by no means certain and the outcome is likely to be disputed
- During the chaos following the US election, China will see how far they can push strategic naval control in the South China Sea - perhaps even attempting to take control of Taiwan. This will probably fail
- The US response will be chaotic and that will destabilise the dollar. This will lead to a collapse in financial markets
- All banks will be nationalised by the end of the year in an attempt to maintain continuity in the economy
- Zombie companies will default and many institutions will become insolvent
- There will be a sharp increase in structural unemployment
- The value of gold, silver, bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies will appreciate
- China will introduce their CBDC
I have posted related Wardley maps in the Map Camp Slack for comments. I will post the remaining series of maps on this forum once completed.